Manufacturing on the Move: National Rebound, Regional Realities, and Future Shifts

Can advanced technologies and reshoring policies balance decades of automation and offshoring to spark a genuine manufacturing renaissance?

Introduction

Over the past five years, U.S. manufacturing has navigated upheavals from the COVID-19 recession to global supply chain stresses—yet recent data shows a surprising rebound in employment. Despite that, questions remain: Has the sector fully recovered everywhere? How are key states like Washington faring, especially in aerospace? And how might new technologies and policy shifts define where manufacturing jobs grow next?

In this post, we’ll explore trends in U.S. manufacturing employment, including national gains and regional gaps, before delving into how major industries—from automotive to aerospace—are transforming. Finally, we’ll see what the future holds for manufacturers in terms of emerging technologies, shifting supply chains, and a drive toward sustainable production.

Background / Context

Manufacturing’s share of overall U.S. employment has gradually declined for decades. Productivity gains through automation, as well as offshoring and a national shift toward service-based industries, reduced the proportion of factory work from above 10% of private jobs in 2010 to around 9.7% in 2023. Even so, employment in manufacturing rose to approximately 12.9 million workers in 2023, slightly surpassing pre-pandemic levels—a first full post-recession recovery since the 1970s.

Though job counts dipped sharply in 2020, especially in industries like aerospace and metals, most subsectors have since rebounded. Notably, manufacturing output continued to grow even as workforce numbers remain well below the peaks of the late 1970s—a clear sign of ever-improving efficiency. Today, manufacturers face a tight labor market and have responded with higher wages and benefits to attract skilled talent.

Key Insights & Discussion

National Job Recovery and Changing Sector Dynamics

Manufacturing lost roughly 650,000 positions at the onset of COVID-19 in 2020. By 2023, those jobs were regained—yet the long-term shift away from labor-intensive factory work continued. Computer and electronic product manufacturing, buoyed by semiconductor demand, has outpaced pre-pandemic growth. Meanwhile, transportation equipment and food manufacturing led job creation after 2020, though metals and other traditional sectors struggled.

Wages in manufacturing now average above $100,000 annually (including benefits), outstripping many other industries. These pay increases reflect competition for skilled trades and a persistent skills gap. Roughly 60% of manufacturing firms reported labor shortages as their top challenge in late 2024. While the unemployment rate for manufacturing hovers near the national average, employers still report difficulties hiring welders, machinists, and technicians.

State and Regional Disparities: Washington State and Puget Sound

Not every region has shared equally in the manufacturing rebound. Washington State, in particular, saw a 6.7% drop in manufacturing jobs from 2019 to 2023—equivalent to almost 19,000 positions. The Puget Sound region (Seattle-Tacoma metro) leads the state’s manufacturing sector but was hit hard by the aerospace downturn when Boeing cut production during the 737 MAX crisis and the pandemic.

After losing more than 8,000 aerospace manufacturing jobs in Snohomish County alone, the area’s rebound has been slow, with just a modest uptick in 2022–2023. Though Boeing is once again hiring and planning to boost output of commercial jets, the region’s overall manufacturing workforce remains below its 2019 peak. Some smaller subsectors in the state—like food processing, paper products, and smaller-scale tech manufacturers—have fared better, but the dominance of aerospace continues to shape Puget Sound’s trajectory.

Policy Impacts and Shifting Global Supply Chains

New industrial policies are changing the map of manufacturing. Federal laws such as the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act have incentivized domestic production of semiconductors, EV batteries, and other clean-energy technologies. Companies are also pursuing “reshoring” and “near-shoring” to avoid the vulnerabilities exposed by global disruptions. Across the U.S., 2022 and 2023 saw record announcements for new factories and expansions in semiconductors and EV-related sectors.

In Washington, leaders set an aspirational goal to add 300,000 manufacturing jobs by 2031, seeking to revive the sector through workforce training, advisory councils, and potential incentives. Yet competition from states offering lower costs and stronger incentive packages remains fierce. The push to “Buy American,” supply chain diversification, and trade tensions could further accelerate reshoring, but local business conditions—taxes, labor availability, and real estate—will shape where exactly these new factories land.

Key Insights & Discussion (Continued)

Emerging Technologies in Manufacturing

From advanced robotics to AI-driven process optimization, new technologies promise higher productivity and resilience, but they also demand fresh skill sets. Puget Sound’s aerospace factories, for example, have embraced automated drilling and fastening systems to reduce errors and speed up aircraft assembly. At the same time, AI-powered predictive maintenance and computer vision systems are cutting downtime and improving quality control.

Additive manufacturing (3D printing) is becoming integral to aerospace and spaceflight. Companies like Blue Origin use 3D printing for rocket engine components, while Boeing employs it to produce specialized tools and some aircraft parts. These innovations reduce lead times, enable complex designs, and spark demand for technicians trained in mechatronics, robotics, and high-end manufacturing software.

Clean Energy and Sustainable Production

Alongside digital transformation, manufacturers are racing toward greener processes. Washington’s abundant hydropower gives local factories an edge: many run on carbon-free electricity. Steel plants in the Seattle area recycle scrap in electric arc furnaces, boasting a lower carbon footprint per ton than the global average. Industries like cement, chemicals, and metals are experimenting with carbon capture and green hydrogen to cut emissions further.

There’s also growing policy support for building out domestic capacity in solar panels, battery storage, and wind turbine components, largely thanks to federal clean-energy incentives. Washington hopes to attract a slice of the clean-tech manufacturing wave, citing renewable power and a skilled workforce. Whether that translates into large-scale investment in the Puget Sound area remains to be seen.

Future Outlook and Opportunities

Even as productivity gains temper large-scale hiring, pockets of job growth will emerge in high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace/defense, and EV supply chains. Economists predict moderate manufacturing output expansion over the next decade—some sectors could see robust growth, while others remain flat or decline. In a region like Puget Sound, Boeing’s production plans, plus new initiatives in space, satellite, and biotech manufacturing, could sustain a steady hiring pipeline.

Despite these bright spots, workforce shortages loom. A predicted 1.9 million manufacturing jobs may go unfilled by 2033 if companies can’t train and attract enough skilled talent. Washington’s success in reversing its manufacturing job losses could hinge on supporting apprenticeships, community college programs in advanced manufacturing, and creative ways to interest younger generations in modern factory work.

Key Takeaways

Recovery but Not Uniform: Overall U.S. manufacturing employment has recovered to above pre-pandemic levels, but some regions and subsectors still lag.
Washington’s Aerospace Woes: In places heavily dependent on aerospace—such as Puget Sound—job growth trails the national rebound. Boeing’s ramp-up may help, but much depends on ongoing orders and stable production.
Policy Matters: Federal incentives are sparking waves of new manufacturing projects, especially in semiconductors, clean energy, and EV batteries. State-level programs attempt to capitalize on these trends.
Technology as a Driver: Adoption of automation, AI, and additive manufacturing is accelerating. Higher productivity can limit overall headcount but also brings demand for specialized, well-paid roles.
Green Manufacturing Rising: Sustainable practices—from low-carbon steelmaking to solar panel assembly—are expanding and hold potential for regions with abundant clean energy.

Conclusion

Manufacturing has proven resilient, bouncing back from a historic downturn but emerging in a changed form. Where once the conversation centered on job loss and offshoring, today it’s about selective reshoring, specialized skill gaps, and advanced technology adoption. For communities like Puget Sound—still reliant on aerospace—this phase is both a challenge and an opportunity: a window to diversify, embrace new technologies, and retain the sector’s high-value jobs.

Whether Washington State and similar regions can reclaim lost positions or yield them to faster-growing locales will depend on a mix of savvy policy, workforce development, and corporate strategy. In many ways, manufacturing’s future mirrors the modern economy itself: it’s not just about more jobs, but about better ones—powered by innovation, mindful of environmental impact, and crucial to national resilience.